Impeachment

I thought it might be time to talk about the "I" word.

I am not all that confident that impeaching President Trump is the right course of action.

Surprise!!

Don't get wrong,  I did not like him as a businessman, did not like him as a reality TV star, certainly did not like him as a candidate, and think his record so far as a president is dismal.  He is the epitome of the selfish American, doing anything and everything to amass his fortune, taking credit for the successes and blaming someone else for the failures.  He represents the worst of our prejudices, inflames divisiveness, and appears to be amoral and unethical in all his actions, from his early real estate dealings through his personal relationships and marriages to his current attack on anyone who disagrees with his opinions, whether they be representatives of our judicial system, legislative system or media.

But to me, impeachment is becoming a cure all for democrats/liberals.  As if, once Trump is removed from office, everything will be right again.  Donald Trump is the manifestation of the decline of our American democracy, not the cause of it.   Not just because our leaders have failed us, repeatedly, seeding the ground for a populist wave that tells us what we want to hear, preys upon our prejudices, and offers simple answers to complex problems, but mostly because we the people have ceased to take responsibility for a healthy governmental system, pulling the levers based on one issue agreement, evaluating candidates based on their party not principles, or worse, preferring to stay home on election day with a self-righteous cynicism rather than spending even the most basic time to research the candidates towards making a choice that reflects the majority of one's list of important issues.  Impeachment only removes the result of the refusal of our electorate to first, participate, and second, make informed choices.

The good news is that, without the blue wave that so many democrats are hoping for in November, impeachment will not even come to a vote in the House of Representatives.  And, even should the Dems take control of the House, 67 United States Senators must vote to impeach him.  That would require all 49 Democrat and Independent Senators plus 18 GOP Senators.  Even should the Dems gain 3 or 4 seats in November, not automatic considering that 24 of the 33 Senate races in November are currently held by Democrats or Independents, that would still require upwards of 15 GOP Senators to vote to impeach. 

Of course, the results of the Mueller probe could contribute to the eventual success or failure of an impeachment effort.  I have no doubt that President Trump has lied often, and about a plethora of issues, and has engaged in obstructing justice in countless ways, so if lying and obstructing justice are enough to start impeachment procedures (as it was with Clinton in late 1998), then the possibility exists,.  But politics has as much to do with the impeachment process as actual criminal activity.  The House and Senate were GOP controlled after the midterm elections of 1998, but not as severely as some GOP strategists predicted, and so while very few Dems voted to impeach, enough GOP representatives voted to send only two of the four counts for impeachment to the Senate.  And, despite the GOP holding 55 seats, the two articles received only 50 and 45 votes respectively, which means that not even all the Republican Senators voted to impeach.  So, while there is the possibility that the gravity of Trump's offenses in that they are related to interfering with the operation of the justice department, not to mention the possibility that members of his campaign, including his family, sought help from a foreign government with the candidate's blessing, as compared to Clinton whose crimes were related to sexual harassment and affairs, politics is not always driven by a search for the truth. 

My fear, therefore, is that if impeachment fails, Trump is emboldened even more so to tout his relentless attack against the FBI and judicial system, the anti-American liberals and progressives who were politically motivated to impeach in the first place, and the mainstream press who will assuredly support the impeachment process.  In short, failure to impeach will be a disaster.

But will success be better? 

Perhaps, but only if a successful impeachment is due to an overwhelming vote.  A close vote based exclusively on partisanship, meaning all Dems vote for impeachment with few, if any GOP reps, voting alongside them, will exacerbate the divide between pro-Trump and anti-Trump sentiment.  Also, we must remember that Mike Pence will assume presidential duties, someone who does little to inspire me to believe he will reverse the harm done by the anti-environmental decisions that Trump and the GOP have passed so far, not to mention the anti-worker, anti-equal pay, pro corporate philosophy that has become the foundation of the GOP party.  Nor do I see him ever standing at a podium and acknowledging Trump's crimes. 

Yes, at least those type of policies will be blocked with a Democratic controlled House and/or Senate, but I don't see much progress made in reversing the harm already done with Pence in the White House.  Not to mention the fact that, should the most recent Supreme Court nominee be confirmed, Trump will have already positioned the ultimate court to continue ruling in favor of reducing women's reproductive rights and workers' rights, while expanding the rights of corporations as if they are actual people. 

So, what is to be done?

First, if you are in agreement that America is being led in the wrong direction, vote.  In fact, even if you are OK with what is happening, vote.   We need to send a clear message to our current and future leaders that the electorate is in control of our democracy, not the few with the most money.  We need to break all the records for midterm election turnout, which, regardless of the results, let both parties know that the American voter is involved.  Should a blue wave come to pass, then we can at least halt the damage. 

Also, and I cannot put too fine a point on this, it will send a message to our president that we have tired of his agenda.  I am sure he will still have his rallies, attended by the faithful, and will continue his assault on all that disagree, but, if the voters send a clear message of rejection, he will be talking to less and less of the public.  From there, we can only hope that in 2020, should President Trump not cancel the election, the voters of the United States decisively reject his re-election, especially if the Dems can come up with a strong candidate.  (Are you listening Barrack Obama?). 

To be honest, I don't see Donald Trump disappearing from public like Sarah Palin has done.  He is too shred to let his popularity fade away before he makes full use of its advantages.  His presidential brand may be harmed, but his personal brand will continue with the help of his friends at Fox, along with those forces that hide behind patriotism when promoting their anti-immigrant, anti-government policies.
He is and has always been about promoting Donald Trump, and will continue to do so, president or private citizen.  Removing him from office is paramount, but how we do it, is just as important.

Direct voter rejection of the Trump agenda, not impeachment, is be the most effective way to quiet his popularity, and remove some of his bluster.    Let's hope the Dems see the forest for the trees and have a realistic back-up plan to the "I" word.