Fighting our instincts

Before beginning this post, I reread my entry from March 24th, which was my first post about the coronavirus.  At that time, I had noted that there were about 400,000 cases of COVID-19 in the world, 17,500 confirmed deaths.  Here in the US, it was the first day we had lost 100 Americans to the virus, our largest loss of life up till then.  I had surmised that this record would, unfortunately, continue to be broken, and that we might expect 1 million cases worldwide by the beginning of April.

As of this morning, we are over 2 million cases worldwide, with over 135,000 dead.  In America, just in the last 2 days, almost 5 thousand people died.  We have over 600,000 confirmed cases, and will have lost 30,000 Americans to the virus by day's end.  In just 3 weeks, worldwide deaths have increased almost by 8 times, and the 1,000 deaths in America is now pushing 30,000, and all this despite the devastating economic damage being caused by the almost nationwide stay-at-home orders!

It is not inconceivable that the world might see 100 million cases by the fall of this year with over 1 million people dead.  I imagine that America will account for 5 million of those cases, perhaps as many as 75,000 deaths.  I don't consider this an alarmist position, or some kind of end-of-the world prediction, as those numbers come no where near the infection and death rates of the Spanish pandemic of 1918-20.  While there are similarities in that the pandemic of the early 20th century spread rapidly due to a lack of herd immunity across the globe, and was not well understood, both points being true of this current virus, our understanding of mitigation and our acceptance to engage in this approach, plus the advantages of world wide cooperation to battle the disease, bodes well for less sickness and death in this instance. 

Remember, the Spanish flu infected upwards of 500 million people in the world, and killed upwards of 50 million people, depending on the data you believe.  But it occurred during WW1, when the world, already reeling from the horrors of trench warfare, mustard gas poisonings, and daily death counts from the war in the thousands, was not focused on the disease.  Despite the occasional petty quarrels we are experiencing recently in regards to who did or didn't do what, when, for the most part the world is working together to stop the spread.  We won't see the kind of appalling numbers that transpired 100 years ago, because we are aware of the danger, and have implemented a course of action.  The Spanish flu, did not originate in Spain, its name came from the fact that the Spanish press reported on it as there was a concerted effort to suppress information about the flu by most countries.  The world was at war so distrust between countries was prevalent, and leaders were concerned that the masses might either lose interest in fighting a war, or panic over the spread of the disease, or both.

This is where our instincts can become an obstacle.

We hear about a new strain of flu in a far away land, and we dismiss it.  Not just because it seems so far removed, but because we have witnessed other possible virus scares, the bird flu, the swine flu, even ebola, which turned out to be serious but contained.  We believe in modern medicine, we believe we are smarter than people were 100 years ago, we believe that a pandemic can't happen in modern times, or can't happen in America, or can't happen to me and my family.  Call it a defense mechanism, call it an integral part of our DNA which keeps us living as opposed to worrying about dying, our instincts tell us that the threat is overblown. 

We see that only 100 people have died and think, well that is an infinitesimal percentage of the population, no problem.  Then it is a 1000, and well, still a low percentage. Then it is 10,000, and well, that is less than car crashes, and then it is 25,000, and well, that is a normal flu season.  Like the frog in water that is slowly brought to boil, we fail to see the trend, or fail to think that the trend will reach our homes.  I am sure that when it reaches 60,000, more than the Vietnam War, more than the Korean War, some will say, well, that is the cost of war, whether against a foreign enemy or a virus.  I imagine that should we approach the death toll of WW1, a bit over 115,000, there will be some who will cite the population percentage, and, well, that wasn't so bad either.

When an animal senses a fire, it runs in the opposite direction, as its survival instinct kicks in.  I would certainly not deny that the human animal doesn't react similarly, but I do believe that our ego, our over active sense of self, does interfere with this natural tendency to flee.  Simply stated, if we were told that terrorists were randomly roaming the streets killing everyone they encountered, that 30,000 Americans had been killed in such a way in the last month, and that these terrorists could not be recognized by site, we might instinctively stay at home, stay at a distance from others, keep our children near us, isolate those least able to defend themselves. 

COVID-19 is such a terrorist, yet it is invisible.  It will infect us through our friends, neighbors, co-wokers, and family, so we resist the urge to flee.  We even, at times, challenge the direction to avoid contact, as if it is our right to be infected and then to infect our loved ones.  Especially in America, but true of most countries which value freedom, our instinct to resist being told what to do wins out over what should be our desire to survive.

I have not hidden my opinion of President Trump.  Regardless of that perspective, I would like to think that my evaluation of his devotion to his instincts is accurate.  He has listened to them all his life and they have served him well.  Financially secure, held in high esteem by millions of people, one of only 45 men to hold the title of President of the United States.  Taken in combination with my belief that Americans are already predisposed to doubt the malignant nature of a virus, President Trump's high regard for his ability to sniff out an opportunity and avoid a danger, easily explain why he hesitated to fully embrace the danger of this virus. 

This is not to say he didn't make some good decisions.  But he had to fight his instincts to make them.  His instinct that America is strong because of our economy.  His instinct that the voting public would care more about the economy than its health.  His instinct that taking advice from others is a sign of weakness.  His instinct that "experts" in the various governmental bureaus and agencies did not like him.  His instinct that loyalty is more valuable than competency. 

I know that some of this sounds like criticism of the president, and perhaps it is, but I am attempting to communicate that his very strengths as perceived by his advocates, are the obstacles he must overcome to lead America through this crisis, just as some of the virtues of the American people, self-reliance, resistance to authority, belief that nothing bad can happen to America since God is on our side, are becoming obstacles to fighting the spread of this malady.

President Trump's biggest flaw is his inability to admit when he makes a mistake.  Someone who does everything perfectly, will never examine the results of his actions, and therefore can not learn to improve his future decisions.  And perhaps too, that is America's biggest flaw. 

We have made the mistake of continuing the belief in employer provided health care, and now see how an economic downturn creates a double whammy for Americans who are unemployed, especially during a health crisis. 

We have made the mistake of putting all our eggs in the basket of consumerism, and now find ourselves facing the consequences of a population and a business community with a woefully inadequate ability to withstand an emergency; very little savings and limited ability to access loans or grants. 

We have made the mistake of increasing deficit spending during the greatest economic surge in our history, and now face an explosion of national debt to prevent a deep recession. 

We continue to support policies that widen income inequality, tax cuts that favor the rich, corporate welfare at the expense of small businesses, laws that reward tax avoidance by the most wealthy individuals and business entities, and will soon see how the rich were buying at rock bottom prices during this downturn while the rest of America saw their meager savings depleted, and the foundation of their financial futures cracked.

The good news is that we have learned from the mistakes made during the pandemic of 1918-20.  We will lose less global citizens to COVID-19.  Whether we address the mistakes we have made in the past 40 years which have created such an imbalance in the distribution of wealth and our ability to address, and recover from an emergency, is not as certain.