Assuming Mike Pence doesn't decide to be the ultimate arbitrator of the 2020 election as Rep. Gohmert from Texas would have us believe, Donald Trump will leave the White House three weeks from yesterday.
For those of you not following the latest attempt to steal the election from the American people, one of Trump's biggest sycophants, Louis Gohmert, is suing Mike Pence to force him to either throw out the rightful electors who are compelled to vote for President-elect Biden as reflective of the will of the citizens who voted in their states, or just unilaterally declare Trump the victor because, well, because Gohmert thinks that the United States Constitution gives such power to Pence. Yea, right, the founders wanted the outgoing Vice President to be able to negate the results of an election that he lost!
Curiously, Pence doesn't want such power; his lawyers claim that Gohmert should be suing himself along with the rest of Congress. If Pence was at all interested in gaining even a minuscule amount of respect from this writer, he would accept the "power" Gohmert claims he has, count the votes as prescribed by the Constitution, and then declare Biden the winner, just as Biden did in 2016 when he presided over the process and named Trump the winner of the 2016 election, an election decided by even less votes in the 3 swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. (Trump won those 3 states in 2016 by a combined margin of 80,000 votes while Biden won those same 3 states by a combined total of 250,000 votes. And, of course, Trump lost the popular vote in both elections by just about 10 million votes combined).
So, again, assuming this last attempt to subvert the will of the people and convert the White House to just another dictator's residence fails, just as all the other attempts by the temper-tantrum-in-chief, in 3 three weeks, the analysis of the Trump presidency will begin. Never one to wait for the spin to begin, here is my take on the last 4 years, facts up.
In January 2009, the unemployment rate when Obama was inaugurated was about 9.8%.
In January 2017, the unemployment rate when Trump took office was just 4.9%. During Obama's 2 terms, the rate fell by half, just about 5%.
In January 2021, the unemployment rate will most likely be about 6.7%, which means that while the rate did drop another 1.5% or so up until February, it will have risen almost 2% in total during the Trump administration.
In January 2009, the US was in the throes of a recession, which began in 2008. This led to an surge in federal deficit spending during Obama's fist term, amounting to $5.1 trillion, and also spurred the Tea Party movement which focused on national debt, blamed Obama and the Democrats for selling out our children's future and led to the GOP taking control of the House in 2010. As the economy improved, Obama's Administration added another $2.2 trillion to the national debt during his second term, $1.5 trillion of that in the last 3 years.
Trump, who inherited a relatively healthy economy, added $2.4 trillion to the debt in his first 3 budgets. Another $3 trillion will be added in his fourth year, which means that during Trump's first term, he will have added $5.4 trillion to the debt, more than that which occurred during Obama's first term.
Strangely, many of those same tea party advocates who voted for such deficit spending in times of a healthy economy, remained silent although I expect that when the final tally of becomes true later in 2021, they will be in full voice despite the fact that it will reflect Trump's budget, not Biden's. (This info came from the article in Forbes referenced below.
In January 2009, the Dow Jones stood at just below 8100, again, the result of the ongoing recession. During Obama's 8 years in office, the Dow rose to about 19,800 when Trump took office. An increase of about 11,700 points, or about 144%.
If we assume that the Dow will go from its current 30,660 to, let's say 31,000, that will be an increase of 12,200 points since Trump took office, or about 62%. Less than half the increase during Obama's 2 terms.
So, to summarize. Obama took office during a recession which occurred during a 4 year term for a Republican president who had a GOP controlled Congress. During his 8 years in office, based on the 3 metrics detailed above, Obama's record was better than that of the business man who was elected to rescue our economy from the democrats.
One last number, GDP. During Obama's 8 years, GDP grew about 12.5%, which includes the 2.5% slide in 2009 when the recession was at its peak. Growth was just under 9% in his 2nd term which is about 2.25% per year, a rate described as sluggish and unacceptable by Trump and his supporters. GDP growth in the first 3 years of Trump totals about 7.7%, or about 2.6% per year, about 17% better. See below.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/gdp-growth-rate
However, projections are that GDP will drop about 3% for 2020, so if you subtract 3% from the 7.7% we have a 4 year growth rate of 4.7%, or about 1.2% per year. Compared to 2.25% for Obama's last 4 years, and overall GDP increased at a rate almost 50% less during the Trump single term; sounds like less than sluggish and unacceptable to me.
At this point, for the 2nd time in 12 years, a Democrat president will inherit a bloody mess from a GOP Administration. We can only hope that Biden is able to oversee our recovery and build as strong a foundation as was built during the Obama years. The only question is, when will the American electorate abandon its belief that the GOP is the party of financial responsibility. This is not to say that the Dems are all that better, but the above information certainly indicates that those who vote Republican for its fiscally responsible policies may need to reassess that thinking.
Let me end by wishing everyone a Happy New Year. Stay safe. And please, put on your big boy pants and mask up!
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