Extremely interesting article in the April National Geographic about population. Some really excellent data, and thought provoking looks at two countries on opposite ends of the population paradox, Nigeria and China.
For those who may have missed it, Earth is now home to over 8 billion people, that mark having been reached sometime late last year. A remarkable number, considering that our planet's population was around 3.5 billion inhabitants 65 years ago when there were many who thought that we were approaching the limits of being able to feed and shelter our ever expanding global population. Fortunately, advances in agriculture created a "green" revolution that not only countered the more than doubling of our planetary population, but combined with medical and technological advances, increased longevity as well.
Another item you may have missed is that India overtook China as the most populous country on Earth. As the specific piece on China explains, the lowering fertility rate for China as well as the one child policy enacted in the 19070's has resulted in, not only a birth rate below replenishment levels, but a population that is aging dramatically. There are some who are predicting that China's window of opportunity to realize its goal of being the world's greatest economic power, may be closing, simply because it may not be able to handle all the problems that are associated with having too few workers to support too many elderly folks.
On the other side of the coin, as is true for most of sub-Sahara Africa, Nigeria's population continues to explode, with some predicting that it will become the third most populous country, supplanting the US, in 25 years, or less. Whether Nigeria can feed its burgeoning population is still in doubt, as they already import a huge amount of food as it is.
Is the Big Blue Marble on the verge of reaching peak population during this century, perhaps at just shy of 10 billion? It is a rather bold prediction when one considers that it took humanity all of history up until the first decade of the 1800's to reach 1 billion people, then another 125 years to get to 2 billion, and 32 years or so to reach 3 billion. At that point, we added another billion people in 15 years, and another billion every 12 years since, excluding the 14 years it just took us to reach 8 billion.
Yet, there is evidence that the arc that tracks our growing population since the early 20th century is getting a bit flatter, more gradual. And, for countries in what many call the industrialized, western world, declining birth rates are already apparent. Italy and Japan are the most extreme examples of this trend, but one of the graphs in the article which depicts fertility rate by country, starkly illustrates that Europe, North America, most of South America, Australia, Russia, and even India and China all have birth rates below replacement levels. Only Africa, parts of Central America and South America, parts of Asia and Indonesia and the Middle East have fertility rates above 2.1 (the replacement rate), and only sub Sahara Africa still has rates above 4. If we assume that as their economies improve, as education levels increase, as access to birth control and family planning methods become more widespread, and, if the migration from rural to cities happens at a pace similar to what has happened everywhere else in the world, even those countries may drop back closer to replacement levels in another half a century.
So, is this a problem?
Some say, considering how strained earth's resources are, or more precisely, how unbalanced the distribution of its resources are, it may be a good thing if population growth eases. Perhaps, once a leveling off occurs, and we address the inequities, a new pattern of growth can emerge, but one where we don't need poorer and low resource countries to encourage 4 or more births per woman knowing that high infant mortality rates will impact that number. Can you imagine, a world where every birth is desired, every life can have some confidence that ample opportunity for attaining the basics of clean water, ample food, shelter and economic opportunity will be provided?
Which, sorry for the delay, brings us to Immigration.
One of the major reasons that a country like China may struggle to maintain its population of workers to support its aging population, is its restrictive immigration policies, both cultural and governmental. Conversely, one of the major advantages that the United States has, is its historically liberal immigration policies, and cultural identity of valuing the melting pot theory label.
Of course, we have been far from perfect in this area, having enacted many different immigration quotas which restricted targeted foreign populations from coming to America. But, in general, and certainly when compared to most nations, America has been proud to welcome those seeking freedom and economic opportunity. Hey, we even have a statue in New York Harbor which greeted the millions of immigrants who came to our shores in the late 19th and early 20th century. See my ode to Lady Liberty below.
https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2015/09/immigration-and-statue-of-liberty.html
Yet, there are those in America today who want to piss away this advantage. Who believe that those who seek refuge from despotic or autocratic regimes, who yearn for freedoms that their birth nations are unable to provide, who prefer to jettison all that they know in terms of culture, traditions, even family and friends to come to America, are not worth having, not worth giving the benefit of the doubt to just as our ancestors were given 100 years ago.
Its not like we don't have a worker shortage in America, don't face uncertainty in how we are going to pay for our own aging population. A new approach to immigration, one that combines a realization that, while some who come across our borders do so with evil intent, the vast majority come as our ancestors did, looking for a better world for their families. We have the tradition, we just need to silence today's xenophobes, those who cannot see past race and nationality variances.
I have posted a number of thoughts on this topic in the past. Here are links to 2 of them.
https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2015/03/immigration.html
https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2014/11/immigration.html
I would like to think that if the American people were asked to vote on a new immigration policy, yes or no, the following would pass.
1. Immediate citizenship for those brought illegally as children. I truly don't understand those who prefer to punish children for the sins of their parents, especially when so many of them often state that they should not be punished for the racist policies of their forefathers.
2. A non-judgmental registration process for all illegals which would provide those who comply with path to citizenship which might include military service, or an employment status of 5 years or more, or a clean police record, or any other idea that may come to mind that can be included which proves worthiness.
3. A more equitable disbursement of those who come across the border so that the southern states are not bearing all the short term expenses.
4. A commitment to addressing the security concerns of the southern states through better border security and more efficient methods of identifying those who are of criminal intent.
Of course, the devil is in the details, and that is fine. A true reformation of our immigration policies will take some time, but without a consensus as to our direction, it will continue to be a disaster, for those seeking to come here, those already here without documentation, and all of us who can see it isn't working.
And, it will take compromise. But to think that there is not a middle path between an open border and dehumanizing everyone who approaches our southern border, is not only sad, it is a negative reflection of our belief in our ability to solve problems. America is as diverse a country as there is today, possible as diverse as has ever been in history. If diversity is part of the strength that has made us great, why would we not continue to embrace it as a way to forge a better future?
Finally, a link to a story I wrote over 10 years ago in an attempt to convey that yesterday's prejudices always seem petty to us, just as today's prejudices will seem petty to future generations.
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