Election day is upon us. Sometime in the next week, we will have a president elect, possibly the first woman president elect, as well as a new slate of Congressmen and women, a handful of new Senators, and a whole lot of new state legislators and other state administrators.
In other words, a new government as elected by we, the people.
I say this because I believe it is worth emphasizing. While one might be distrustful of the two political parties which present us with the candidates from which to choose, it is still we, the people, who ultimately pick our leaders.
And, as I have stated more than once, it is we, the people who are the most at fault if we are unhappy with our public servants and the laws and policies that they enact.
So far, early voting in the form of mail in and in person at polling stations, has already accounted for over 65 million votes, which is more than 40% of the total number of votes cast in the 2020 presidential election. This in itself should be considered a compliment to both Vice President Harris and Donald Trump, as it is clear that both have energized their respective bases to exercise their right to participate in our election process.
I have already posted four times this year under the label of Election 2024. Here are links to those posts.
https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2024/08/it-new-day.html
https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2024/06/did-rfk-jr-win-debate.html
https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2024/03/the-key-to-novembers-presidential.html
https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2024/01/nikki-haley-for-president.html
I spent the time to read them before starting this entry. While my endorsement of Nikki Haley turned into disappointment when she resigned from the race, then endorsed Trump, I am still in agreement with my opinion that women will decide this race.
I think that Haley's candidacy gave many conservative women permission to put country over party, and I believe that the horror stories coming to light about women dying in states where draconian abortion laws are scaring medical professionals to abandon their Hippocratic oaths, not to mention the rise in infant and maternal mortality in those same states since the Dobbs decision, will continue to drive women and some men to choose life over the misguided laws that pretend to be pro-life.
Still, Americans, historically vote with their pocket book, and the memory of high inflation, and slow progress in efforts to reduce prices, is a compelling reason to vote Republican. It doesn't matter that inflation was a world wide phenomenon, it is far easier to blame the incumbent's party than to delve into the facts that inflation would have occurred regardless of who won in 2020.
For me, it was a no brainer to check the box next to Harris/Walz. I say was because I already voted, by mail, more than three weeks ago.
But rather than detail the extremely long list of reasons not to vote for Trump, rather than specify that he
is a convicted sex offender
cheated on all three of his wives
believes loyalty is a one way street as exemplified by his treatment of VP Pence who stood by him through thick and thin only to be called a coward when he didn't violate the Constitution of the United States by rejecting the duly certified electors of some of the states (including my own personal vote in Pennsylvania)
adores the authoritarian and dictators of the globe
recently called America the garbage can of the world
stole national secrets and classified documents when he left office then lied about having them for over 18 months
was convicted of business fraud
has promised to pardon those convicted January 6th criminals who beat up police officers, broke windows and doors to access our national capitol, then vandalized the offices within
is an election denier who actively sought to stay in power after he lost the 2020 election and says every day that the election was stolen thereby casting doubt on the very process that defines a democracy
No, rather than enumerating those facts, and other outrageous actions, I prefer to itemize the reasons I chose Harris/Walz.
Women's Health
It is crystal clear to me that Trump is responsible for the horrific situation in America in which upwards of a third of women have lost the fundamental right of reproductive freedom. While I have no illusion that a Harris presidency, by itself, will equate to legislative action that will codify Roe V Wade, or some other such 20-24 week cutoff in which women (with their partners and health care providers) have sole discretion on whether to end a pregnancy, I also know that it can get a lot worse with Trump/Vance in the White House. Can you say Comstock Act?
It may take a while longer for women in GOP controlled states to demand from their legislators to raise them from second class status, but at least with Harris those women who choose to live in blue states will be safe.
Ukraine
It is also quite obvious that Trump will allow Putin to do whatever he wants in any negotiation to end the war in Ukraine. Whether it is because he is still pissed that Zelenskyy didn't accede to his attempt at extortion to trade weapons for dirt on Biden, or simply because of his bromance with Putin who knows how to play a vulnerable mark from his days in the KGB, we know Trump will sell out Ukraine without hesitation.
Now, while I am hesitant to support American boots on the ground, I am fine with paying American companies to produce American weapons and giving or loaning them on an ongoing basis to send the message that international bullies must not be allowed to prosper, and I feel that Harris will continue in this manner.
Israel
Again, Trump will support Netanyahu in any act of war, criminal or otherwise. After all, what is the point of having superior weaponry, if you can't use it to vanquish your enemies. There have been countless humanitarian crises in the last few centuries. Sadly, I expect that history will count the ongoing slaughter in Gaza, the displacement of over 2 million people, and the eventual death of what could approach 10 percent of those people due to starvation, malnutrition, and disease as one of the worst.
Harris is not much better in this regard, although she at least calls for an increase in aid for the Palestinians while still defending the right for Israel to gain revenge for the horrors of October 7th. While her humanity is laudable while ineffective, it still reflects the possibility of a more humane outcome whereas with Trump, there will only be continued death and destruction.
Economy
I know that reading and understanding history is not a popular pastime in America, but I am still flabbergasted at the short memories being displayed by today's voters. The last two Republican Administrations, Bush 2 which ended in 2008, and Trump's which ended in 2020, were both marked by very difficult economic situations.
In 2008, the stock markets had crashed, unemployment was on its way to 10%, mortgages were being foreclosed upon in record numbers, and the economy was in a recession, meaning GDP was negative.
In 2020, as the pandemic was still taking thousands of people per day, the stock market crashed, unemployment was on its way to 7%, people were stuck at home waiting for the vaccine to become available, and the economy was in recession. Not to mention there were supply chain disruptions across all types of consumer goods.
During Obama's first term, things did not improve very quickly but by the end of his first term, all of the metrics had improved enough that the electorate provided him with another term. By 2016, while GDP was positive, although sluggish, the stock markets had recovered, unemployment had stabilized, and inflation was extremely low.
During Biden's first term, inflation struck, hard. While, as I stated above, most economists will agree that inflation was inevitable as the world recovered from the pandemic, it is also true that continuing to provide stimulus to American families so they could pay their bills, stay in their homes, purchase the goods and services and medicines that they needed, led to higher prices.
What's ironic is that the very thing Obama was criticized for, a sluggish recovery, was avoided with those stimulus payments. (And remember, two of the stimulus payments occurred during the Trump term.) Now, one could argue that a slower economic recovery, lower inflation, more unemployment, is better than a much faster economic recovery (stock market continue to break new records, GDP is far higher than during Trump's term).
And certainly, some kind of balance where recovery from major upheaval, whether it be economic as in 2008, or health related as in 2020, would be preferable. We can certainly debate why such a reduction of boom/bust might be attainable, and what factors keep the cycle going, but let's not forget the facts.
Republican administration ending in 2008 disaster.
Democratic administration ending with better stats (if not improving slower than desired) in 2016.
Republican administration ending in 2020 disaster.
Democratic administration ending with better stats (if not improving slower than desired) in 2024.
All that being said, neither candidate has a plan to address our growing national debt. Both keep flashing around tax reductions as a way to attract voters, but neither is telling us the truth, that we can't spend or grow our way out of debt.
However, at least Harris wants to raise the taxes of the super rich while Trump, being (allegedly) super rich himself, prefers tax breaks for that group.
And, of course, Trump thinks tariffs are the magic bullet even though, again, history will tell you that tariffs are only effectual when used sparingly, even surgically, because at the end of the day, cooperation in the form of fair trading practices, is the basis of capitalism, not bullying through the use of tariffs meant to punish our trading partners which almost always end up in higher prices for consumers.
LGBTQ+ and Trans communities
It amazes me that people my age, people who witnessed the demonization of gay people in the 1980's, who were told that the gay agenda was to make our children gay, or to seduce them in some insidious way, or that they couldn't be adoptive parents, or that God himself hated America because we tolerated such behavior, can't see how that movie is playing again, but with the trans child and adult being the new boogeyman.
Obviously, Donald Trump is nothing if not someone who knows how to illicit hatred for those that are different, but like those characters from "The Big Chill" who seemed amazed that people who were like them, who shared their experiences, could turn out so different, I am just as amazed at those who buy into the bullsh@@ that trans children, their parents, and trans adults are the reason why America is in decline, are who we need to weed out of our society, or who God hates.
Now, I can understand why some people might look askance at the prospect of providing tax payer money for trans surgeries in prisons, but be clear, that is an extreme example which has occurred a handful of times in history, has never been proposed for illegal immigrants, and is designed to make you think there are thousands of trans men in prisons seeking this extreme and invasive surgery, or are just interested in creeping around women's bathrooms, while the reality is that trans people are for more likely to be bullied, and that trans men committing crimes for free surgery, if it has occurred (because remember 5% of people are assholes) is extremely rare. Certainly less rare than the number of priests who have been accused of molesting young boys.
Harris will at least be open to treating those with a true gender dysphoria and those who are just confused, with empathy. That commercial being aired which claims Harris is for they/them while Trump is for you, is just despicable in its attempt to isolate those that perceive their sexual identity differently than most people and it turns my stomach to think it is effective.
Immigration
Now there are those who might thing that I broach this topic towards the end of this post as most people believe this is a strength for Trump. And, if I were to be honest, the Biden/Harris administration did not handle immigration very effectively for most of their term. Even when considering that recovering from the pandemic was priority one, and that Biden thought honest negotiation with a very conservative senator would produce a bipartisan immigration bill, there should have been more focus on our broken immigration system before the executive action that was taken this past summer.
I know that the GOP controlled House which looked to Trump for direction was not about to agree to any Biden proposal, and I would like to think that a better plan to handle the influx of immigrants, legal or otherwise, could have been developed in conjunction with negotiating some legislation. Perhaps if given a choice, unilateral executive action or bipartisan legislation, the GOP could have been willing to the latter. As it was, the legislation was revealed too close to the election and too easy for Trump to scuttle.
Still, I believe Harris will learn from that mistake, will continue the current executive actions, perhaps even adding to them, and perhaps will get the GOP to the table, especially since she will have won, which means that Trump will have lost, again.
As for Trump's proposal to deport millions of undocumented people, I find it hard to believe that such a plan will be legally tenable, and/or that the majority of Americans will stand by while families are torn apart, American children with undocumented parents will suffer, and communities will lose the working power of this demographic, who toil in our factories, meat processing plants, gardens and restaurants.
I would like to think that such a plan where cruelty is the point, will be condemned far and wide in a country which claims to be a Christian nation.
Environment
I save this one for last because, while I truly believe that our democracy is in danger, not just because Trump has told us in no uncertain terms that he seeks to be like Putin and Orban and Kim Jong On, but because we take if for granted, do not put our due diligence in researching our political candidates, I also believe that climate change is real, and that humanity is accelerating this change.
Trump is a climate change denier, pure and simple. Sometimes I wonder if, knowing he is towards the end of his life, he spouts such nonsense as drill, baby, drill, or that climate change is a hoax because he knows he will be long gone before the worst is realized. It is something a transactional person would think, trading votes today for suffering that he will miss tomorrow.
Harris will at least continue to push for a greener energy transition, but more importantly, far more importantly, she will employ people in her administration who will advocate for our planet, people in departments such as the EPA while Trump will empower fossil fuel acolytes in those same seats of power. And he will certainly not engage in any cooperation among nations to combat climate change because, again, being transactional, global cooperation requires those nations with more, those nations who have been a bigger part of the problem, to give more so everyone thrives.
Finally, there was some controversy concerning the Washington Post not endorsing a presidential candidate this year. Tens of thousands of Post subscribers cancelled, many employees of the company signed a protest letter and some even resigned.
A few days ago, I read the editorial written by the owner of the Post, Jeff Bezos which defended his decision.
As most of you know, I am not a fan of the super rich, regardless of political affiliation. And, I had read some of the responses to this decision, those that claimed Bezos may have been either afraid that Trump would win, afraid of any retribution that might come his way (his way defined as Amazon) should his paper endorse Harris, opinions which it was easy for me to consider as possible.
But I read his opinion, followed his logic, understood his points, especially his main one that since the media is losing the trust of the American electorate, he thought it best to not endorse a candidate so that his newspaper might appear less biased, just news focused.
Hogwash, was my reaction.
First of all, Trump followers will always disparage the Washington Post because Trump tells them to, so this noble stand will not change one of those minds.
Secondly, true independents, people who seek news, read it, then fact check it if it seems less than credible, will also be able to separate news from opinion, opinion being what is being offered when someone endorses a candidate.
I endorsed Harris in this post, tried to provide some facts to support my opinion, but I don't consider this news. If Bezos really thinks that people who read his paper cannot separate news from opinion, perhaps he should buy Fox News where that separation is blurred, on purpose.
With all due respect Mr Bezos, doing nothing as defined by not endorsing a candidate, whether Trump or Harris, displays a marked sign of someone who lacks fortitude, raises the suspicion that such powerful and successful businessmen value their money over country, and frankly, seems to reflect a deficiency of patriotism.
To me, doing nothing, at this time, does not say I am trying to improve the perception of fairness, it says I am too chicken to put my money where my mouth is.
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I guess I would be remiss if I did not provide my predictions for the election.
First, my hope that regardless of the outcome, there will be a split government, meaning neither party will control both Houses of Congress and the White House. Whether that result will inspire those elected to work together to improve our country is debatable, but that would be the message they should receive.
Based on the fact that Trump did not exceed 47% of the popular vote in either 2016 or 2020, that his ceiling seems to be about 48%, I predict that Harris will win the presidency, that her popular vote victory will be enough to win the blue wall of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, plus Nevada which will gain her enough electoral votes even without Arizona and Georgia.
I believe that Harris will gain as many or more independents and disillusioned Republican voters due to the anti-abortion laws debacle and the January 6th insurrection, as she will lose in independent and Democratic voters who are upset about inflation.
In the Senate, it seems clear that it will go to the GOP, assuming that West Virginia (a certainty), and Montana (most likely) flip. With Ohio, PA, Michigan and Wisconsin all close, the GOP majority could go as high as 52-48, although I expect the Dems will hold those four toss up seats, making it a 51-49 Republican majority.
In the House, which currently features a slim 8 seat majority, meaning the GOP can only afford to lose five seats, there seems a better than 50% chance that the Dems gain control as there are four seats that will most likely be flipped right off the bat. Looking at the 22 seats that are currently rated as toss up (by the Cook Report), with 12 being GOP and 10 Dem, I can see the Democrats picking up at least another three, perhaps as many as six which would equate to about 220-215, give or take.
Thus a split government, which I would applaud.
Now, of course, numbers are only numbers, and we can be assured that the ex-president will
claim victory sometime Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning before all the votes are tabulated
say the words "rigged election" at least a dozen times within 24 hours of the last poll closings on the West Coast
accuse the Dems of election fraud and interference even more times than he uses the word rigged
call on Speaker of the House Johnson not to certify the election
go on an "election integrity" tour claiming all sorts of conspiracy theories about cheating, fake ballots, fraud, etc
Hopefully, and despite (or perhaps because of) any violence that ensues as a result of his election lies (again), it may finally come to pass that Donald J Trump's 15 minutes in the sun (although yes, I agree it has seemed like 15 decades), will begin to wane.
And, if it becomes apparent that the women of America were the force that voted him out, it will be all that more fitting that he was defeated by the very gender that he has abused, taken advantage of, and (because of the Dobbs decision) heaped anxiety, injury and even death upon.
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