Science

Two interesting articles in the June Smithsonian; Defying the Nazis and Predicting the Pandemic.

The first, Defying the Nazis, recounted the story of Paul Rivet, a French anthropologist who openly disagreed with the racist ideas promoted by many anthropologists of the time (and adopted by Hitler and the Nazi party) which was used to justify the murder of the Jews, and the belief in the superiority of the Aryan race.  As is usual about so many Smithsonian articles, this small bit of history is generally unknown by most people, as it was by me.  Rivet went on to not only fight the racism endemic in the belief of certain races being inferior to others, but was a key figure in the early creation of the French underground movement, and in fact, the naming of that movement; the Resistance.

The second tells the story of the 1957 pandemic that killed 1.1 million people worldwide, and infected about 20 million Americans, leading to 116,00 deaths.  Similar to the current coronavirus plaguing our planet, this strain also emerged from China and was a strain unlike any which humans had encountered before.  The difference however, is that a man named Maurice Hilleman, an American microbiologist who was in charge of influenza monitoring at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, saw the virus coming and prepared the United States ahead of time.  Hilleman arranged for the US military to ship samples of the pathogen from Hong Kong to his lab in Washington DC, a task which enabled him to identify the H2N2 strain as a unique pathogen.

Initially, however, Hilleman's warnings were ignored by the US Public Health Service.  Eerily similar to our reaction to the novel coronavirus today, people and health organizations had become complacent in their understanding of the deadly power of such aggressive influenza strains, and so his warnings were for naught.  Fortunately, he sent his samples to the 6 biggest pharmaceutical companies directing them to produce a vaccine for the new flu, which they did, such was his clout and reputation in the industry.  When the virus hit America's shores in the fall of 1957, as Hilleman had predicted, America was soon armed with a vaccine due to his persistence, and upwards of 30 million Americans were inoculated during that year's flu season, saving hundreds of thousands of lives.

While I did not do the research, I would imagine that this lesson may have resulted in the eventual formation of the CDC and other such agencies, whose job it is to identify, study, disseminate information about, and provide guidance to fight such diseases.

Stories such as Frankenstein, address both our admiration and fear of the power of science.  We dearly hope that our scientists can find cures for such horrible diseases as Parkinson's, Alzheimer's, cancer, etc, while fearing that the power of science might be used for nefarious or violent means.  No topic better illustrates such hope and fear than nuclear power which has been used to provide clean energy, yet also to kill thousands of people in one second.

Scientists themselves often find themselves caught between the realization that their research can be used for both good and evil, but rather than engaging among themselves and with the public to determine the right path, they allow politicians and business people to find uses for their inventions, uses which too often run contrary to the good of the public. 

Paul Rivet, whom that first article was about, did not abdicate his responsibility to speak out when he saw anthropological evidence used by the Nazis to power their evil agenda, while Maurice Hilleman used his knowledge to spur the development of a vaccine which saved countless lives despite being told he was an extremist and doomsayer for predicting the deadly nature of the virus he had studied.

In the last few days, we surpassed 10 million cases worldwide, 500,000 deaths due to COVID-19.  Here is America, while we have only documented over 2.5 million cases (compared to 20 million in 1957-58), we have already experienced more deaths than what was, at the time, the 2nd worst epidemic in America's history.  However, and it is a big HOWEVER, the virus didn't wait until the fall to start killing people, it began right away, in the Spring.  And it is still spreading, alarmingly so, despite the heat of the summer.  And, a vaccine, while perhaps only 6 months away, will not provide us with any relief through at least half of the next flu season.  And, worst of all, it is beginning to spread through countries with dense populations and countries with far less advanced medical facilities than Western Europe and the US.  We are currently experiencing a million new cases every week, worldwide and the rate is accelerating.  40 million by year's end?

But even scarier, this virus seems far more deadly than any we have seen before.  Even if we were to assume that there have been 4-5 cases for every case that has been identified, the death rate is upwards of 10 times higher than a normal flu.  2 million deaths by year's end?

It is crystal clear to this writer, that Donald J Trump has failed America on two fronts.  First, his apparent disdain for the science of infectious disease, especially when it interferes with his selfish desire to win reelection no matter the price.  And second, his utter inability to understand that health comes before money and a strong economy.  Both fatal flaws are on display with his single minded need to hold rallies to appease his ego.  In essence, he and his entourage are becoming the super seeders of COVID-19, spreading the virus into America's heartland, while he publicly demonstrates his lack of even the most basic trait of a good leader, to lead by example, or in his case, by leading by no example as illustrated by his refusal to wear a mask which in turn, allows his ardent followers to do the same.

Finally, it is this disdain for science that has resulted in going on 4 more years of lost time in addressing climate change.  Four more years of doing nothing, and in some cases, making it worse.  If science can truly save us from ourselves before climate change fully impacts the Earth, we will need to decide as a country and as a planet, to seek the best science, throw out the chaff from the wheat, and elect leaders who respect the answers it can provide while employing those solutions for the betterment of all of us.