I have posted two essays on this blog along the theme of thanks to Donald Trump. The first was on November 2, 2020, just before the presidential election. In that post, referenced below, I praised Trump for energizing the electorate as no one had done for quite a long time. I had stated that there was a good chance that we would see over 60% turnout in that election; as it turned out, percentage of the voting age population (VAP) who voted in 2020 was about 62%, the highest since 1960. And if you use a different metric, voting eligible population (VEP), turnout was just shy of 67%, the highest on record by more than 7% since that particular measure was instituted in 1980. Now, one might say that still means that 3 in 10 Americans who are eligible to vote did not, and that in terms of world ranking, we are far down the list of most active citizens participating in national elections, but still, that this was the first time we broke 60% since 1968, and only the 5th time we surpassed 60% in the last 32 elections, we should celebrate progress. If you click on the ink below, you will also read that I retracted some of my praise for Trump by detailing all the ways he was leading to doubt in the veracity of mail-in ballots.
https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2020/11/thank-you-donald-trump.html
The second one was posted on December 6, 2020. In that one I recounted the events from election night to a month before 1/6 (of course I did not know at the time what would occur on 1/6). I detailed how, once he lost the election, he showed his true colors by actively fighting the peaceful transition of power through his false claims of massive voter fraud, baseless lawsuits, illegal attempts to sway various state election officials and legislators to "find ballots" or send bogus electors, all of which was capped off by his open request that VP Pence ignore the US Constitution and not verify the election results. Still, in this post, I assumed that Joe Biden would be sworn in as President on Jan 20, 2021, and I felt confident that while bent and abused, our experiment in democracy will have survived Trump's inability to accept that he lost. In other words, I was thanking Trump for showing just how strong our democracy was, just how resilient the institution could be in the face of a direct attack by a former president.
https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2020/12/more-thanks-for-donald-trump.html
So that brings us to today's post. Why on earth would I possibly be thanking Vladimir Putin knowing that he has openly challenged the sovereignty of another country, has sent his military to assassinate its elected leaders, kill its soldiers and slaughter those citizens who stand against his horrific actions?
For one, it appears that Putin may have under estimated the strength and unity of NATO, in that for the most part, the NATO countries are united in their condemnation of this invasion, and in making some economic sacrifices to send a message that this attack will not go unpunished. Certainly, there is debate as to how aggressive we should be in our reaction and there is clearly no taste for actual boots on the ground. But, all in all, NATO has shown that the organization is viable, that it's existence is important. While I think it is safe to say that Putin also under estimated the fight and will of the Ukrainian people, that he may have thought that they would capitulate more quickly, I also think he perceived the West to be in enough disarray due to the effects of the pandemic, the ongoing rise of populist leaders who espouse a dangerous me first mentality, and the simple fact that he has been successful in his misinformation campaign to weaken democracy as a whole. In other words, it seems that he over played his hand, over estimated the strength and effect of his ongoing attacks against governments who choose free and fair elections over autocracy and dictatorships, and for that we should be grateful that he has reminded us that democracy, for all its missteps and occasional backsliding, is far better than what Putin and his ilk represent.
Second, and perhaps a bit more subtle, I hope this ongoing crisis reminds us that might does not make right. Just because a country can invade another sovereign nation, either directly through the military or indirectly via covert operations that assassinate and replace its leaders, it should not be tolerated in a world that values freedom, not just for our own citizens but for those who reside in countries that have different cultures. Putin's invasion reminds us that there is a huge difference between having a strong military in order to defend one's country, as compared to using it to subjugate the citizens of another. I truly hope we remember this lesson the next time we, the Untied States of America, decides to use our military to invade another country. I say this, not just because, no matter what excuse we embrace, putting our soldiers in another country without their consent, is an invasion, but because recent history, whether it be Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan, or the current experience of Russia in Ukraine, teaches us that it is improbable that the citizens of another country can be convinced, through force, that the values of the invading country justify the killing of those being invaded.
Everyday for the past month, we have seen atrocities being committed, hospitals, schools, shelters being bombed, citizens being killed in the street, cities being starved of its resources, food and water. And, while these sorts of actions that demonstrate how cruel Putin is being to Ukraine, and how brutal those individuals who are executing his commands are being to people, who, while residents in another country, have a very similar culture and background, we must remember that these horrific events are not unique. All wars, whether they are called operations, or police actions, or military engagements, all wars create refugees, all wars create dead mothers, children, the elderly. Even those America has waged in the past 50 years. Perhaps we will remember the nightly pictures from Ukraine the next time we advocate for military intervention by our own armed forces against another country. Perhaps we should save those images and play them the next time we are ready to perform a knee jerk reaction in the name of revenge or nation building or the halting of an ism different from our own, so that at least we can be honest with ourselves and not pretend that all military violence creates the very same results that we are seeing on TV today.
A third thing that came to my mind, similar to my comments about NATO seeming to find a new sense of unity, is the thought that perhaps Putin's invasion will begin a sea change in perception that we need to act even more in concert with our fellow countries, not less as our former president seemed to believe. (I personally don't doubt that Putin was all too happy that Trump did his dirty work for him by casting doubt on the necessity of NATO). Don't get me wrong, I am all for reducing military expenditures all around the world. I feel 100% that we spend far too much money on "defense", money that could be used to provide all sorts of comforts and opportunities to everyday people. But in terms of alliances like NATO, or any other that encourages group participation and cooperation, I have no doubt that just the fact that Putin wants us to be less committed to Europe and other like minded countries, means we should be doubling down on these type of associations.
I can't imagine that there are not many people out there who have not experienced being bullied. And how to bullies thrive? By breaking off the weak from the group, and by making the group hesitate to act in fear that they might be next. Putin is a bully. His attack on Ukraine illustrates the first tenet, attack the weak. His goal of breaking up NATO, illustrate both his desire to separate other countries from the group, and his belief that the weaker the group, the less inclined for a group reaction to his attacks.
Toward the idea that so often in human history, it has taken the recognition of an outside threat that spurs action, especially coordinated action, I had hoped that the pandemic might inspire global unity against that threat. Unfortunately, it did not, which makes me less encouraged to think that Putin will be evaluated as the next big threat to the globe. This idea, that it will take an external threat to unite humanity, is what motivated me to write The Archives, for which there is a link below. It recounts a future where the globe is united against a threat from outside our solar system.
https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2010/06/archives.html
Lastly, and again, this is a lesson i hope we garner from this atrocity, I hope the energy crisis that Putin's actions have exacerbated, will teach us once and for all that we need to wean ourselves from our addiction to fossil fuels in general, oil in particular. As has had happened every time in the past when prices at the pump rose precipitously, the drill, baby, drill mantra has raised its ugly head. As if any of the other jumps in gas prices were solved by drilling for and pumping more oil!
It reminds me of the concept that more guns will make us safer. That if more people had a gun, there would be less gun violence, even though there are reams of statistics that show that countries with the most guns have the most gun violence, those with the least, have the least. To me, drilling for more oil will never address the main issue, that we need to revise our energy policy to encourage energy sources that do not require us to be vulnerable to any reduction in oil production, whether that reduction comes from OPEC, or a nation which becomes economically isolated due to its violation of international norms, or because it is a finite resource, or because the profit margin had dropped below that which renders new drilling sites a poor return on investment.
Or because the drilling, production and transfer of fossil fuels continues to add to our attack on the environment! Yes, that old problem which, year by year, brings us closer to what may truly be the outside force that brings humanity together.
It is always good to look for a silver lining in all things unpleasant. Wouldn't it be wonderful, if, in 20 years, President Putin will be thanked by history for bringing to light the necessity of strength among the democracies of the world, for giving new life to the global need to reduce oil and fossil fuel consumption, for encouraging diplomacy first, second, third, and fourth before turning to armed conflict to solve our differences, and for giving new life to the need for global cooperation in the fight to combat climate change.
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