Enemies Within

A friend of mine left a comment about my recent posts, The Decline of America. In it, he referred to me as a decent, caring man, but that he disagreed with my positions. I thought about that comment today, then decided to wrote this post. But before composing it, I glanced at the four posts I had previously written under the label Politics and Civility, which I just read. Here are links to those posts.

https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2018/10/civility.html

https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2018/10/white-male-backlash.html

https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2016/10/me-for-president.html

https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2012/10/letters-to-editor.html

Curiously, the oldest of the four, from 2012, discussed the drastic polarity in our politics at the time, centered around our first African American President, who was running for his second term.

That post includes a reference to an online letter written by an elderly woman who claimed that another Obama term would mark the end of America. Her letter detailed why she thought as such, although some of her facts were not entirely true.

In addition to her comment, I refer to the five posted responses to her opinion, two in complete agreement, two diametrically opposed to her views, and one which requested future comments about the topic should actually introduce facts, and not "idiocies", his word, not mine.

My comment indicated my support for Obama, but also a statement that regardless of who won, we would have a man if integrity in the White House. For those of you who can't recall the GOP candidate in 2012, it was Mitt Romney.

I mention this, because I believe that my assertion, that both men were, are, men of integrity, who have different viewpoints of how to improve America, has been proven. 

America did not "end" as the writer suggested, during Obama's second term, and Romney displayed his ethics (and love for our country) when he voted to impeach Trump after the events of January 6th.

The third link, "Me, for President", also struck me as I was very focused on the middle class as the source of our greatness, and why we needed to emphasize programs and policies that will help those who make up this important swath of our economy. 

Which brings us to enemies within. 

This is a phrase being bandied about a lot by the GOP presidential nominee in this election cycle. 

I am very realistic in my understanding that very few people read my blog. I see the statistics every time I log in to create a new post.

But, if something were to change, if suddenly tens of thousands of people were to discover and begin reading my posts, I would certainly be one of those enemies within as referenced by the ex-president.

And so I have to wonder, why does my friend think I am a good man while still voting for the presidential candidate who has made it clear that people like me will need to be removed from our country if we are to Make America Great Again.

Does my friend think that Trump is not serious when he discusses using the military and judicial systems to target those enemies? 

I think that the recent revelations and statements by General Kelly should be proof enough that Trump will attempt retribution against those who disagree with him should he win again. Not to mention that Trump uses the word retribution at every rally.

Well, just so we are clear, I am one of the enemies within, as defined by Trump because

I believe that January 6th was one of the worst days in American history, perhaps the worst, because the past attacks on our country, Pearl Harbor, 9/11, the English burning parts of Washington DC, were accomplished by foreign actors who attacked us while on January 6th, it was American citizens who attacked the Capitol, fought hand to hand combat with police officers, broke windows to gain entry into the building, and vandalized the building, its offices and hallways, in an attempt to delay the certification of Biden. And it was Trump who told them, day after day after day, that the election was stolen.

I believe that any American who praises the worst world leaders seeks to be like them, covets the ability to do whatever he sees fit with immunity from consequences, as his lawyers stated in front of the Supreme Court Justices earlier this year.

I believe that demonizing immigrants, calling then vermin, accusing some (falsely) of eating pets, not only portrays an anti-Christian attitude, but spits in the face of the spirit of the Statue of Liberty that greeted my ancestors and those of a large percentage of Americans alive today.

I believe that women should have, nay deserve, reproductive freedom especially considering that it took 150 years from our founding for them to get the right to vote, and another 100 years for them to be able to seek equal opportunities in the job market.

I believe that America belies the notion that "all men are created equally" when it denies the basic rights to marry the person one loves, to worship in the manner one believes, and to identify the gender that makes one happy.

I believe that when someone breaks a law, regardless of their wealth, they should be held accountable, as opposed to using his wealth and political standing to delay trials and sentencing.

I believe that a candidate for any elected position, MUST accept the results of that election once all reasonable and legal investigations have concluded, and that running on a platform of "America's elections are rigged" should be an automatic disqualifier.

I believe that the vast amount of immigrants, legal and illegal, come to America for the exact same thing that my grandparents did, better opportunities both economic and social, and that those that have been here for five or more years, even if they came illegally, should be provided a path to citizenship if they have become assets to their communities and without criminal record, whether that path requires an extra monetary payment, military or community service, or any such specifications as determined by a bipartisan Congress. 

I believe that the free press should not only not be another group on Trump's enemy list, but is vital to our democracy, and anyone who suggests that certain newspapers, TV broadcast companies, or new outlets should lose their license or be shut down is the true enemy of our country.

I believe that Donald Trump is the worst president in my lifetime, not because I disagree with most of his policies, but because he actively promotes doubt in our institutions; our elections when he loses, our jury system when he is convicted, our judicial system when he is indicted.

Based on my beliefs and perspectives, Donald Trump considers me an enemy from within, and, harsh as it might be to hear, anyone who votes for him is indirectly in agreement with his opinion.  

God's Side

This morning at breakfast, I heard the song "God On Our Side" by Bob Dylan. It reminded me that I had written a post specifically about this song, and after a quick check, found that it was almost nine years since that post. Here is a link to it, with the full text of the words of Dylan's song, and my comments at the time.

https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2015/12/god-on-our-side.html

As a result of this memory, I thought it might be timely to post again about religion in our lives, especially in terms of religion as viewed through a political lens.

Religion and Government

At first blush, it seems that this could be considered an oxymoron, as per our Constitution and the First Amendment which very clearly states that 

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof

I have commented more than once that it seems that many people focus on the second part of that amendment when they believe that any tenet of their religion must be allowed to be exercised, even when the very exercise of that belief would deny someone else their religious or any other basic freedom. 

Such lawsuits advocating for this philosophy can be found in cases which claim that certain employers need not pay for medical care related to birth control or abortion because the religion of the owners of the company forbids them to engage in such activities, regardless of whether all their employees feel the same or not. Seems strange that corporations now take on the religious beliefs of their owners.

Or to go back in time a bit, people that claimed that their religion forbade them to hire, house, or do business with a gay person simply because being gay violated their religious perspective.

Or in a similar way, the current focus on trans rights and how we needn't treat those adults or children (or their parents) as equals under the law when one's religion looks unfavorably on such people.

When Dylan wrote God On Our Side, his focus was war, and how people on each side of such a conflict were convinced that their God was on their side, so death and destruction, while undesirable, was sanctioned as long as it was done with their God's blessing.

While my recent forays into this topic focused on lifestyle choices as noted in the previous paragraphs, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas is rife with people who defend the atrocities of war with some version of what their God wants, or who God loves most.

Even crazier, in America there is a very vocal (and influential) group that has attached to the GOP presidential candidate some type of revelation of God's plan. That resistance to his election is not only anti-American, but displays a lack of belief in God, or worse, a belief that God actively supports one political party over another. 

The fact that this candidate has what was once described as a "checkered" past in regards to his treatment of women, his business activities, his respect for the rule of law, would make his candidacy comical, except that there are those who go the full Monty and believe his imperfections prove that God's method and anointed ones can not be understood by us, that this candidate's foibles prove God's  extreme love for us that he would use such an imperfect channel to work his Plan, to save America from itself, to make it great again.

Sometimes I wonder why the Democratic party has seemingly ceded the affiliation to God (and family and values for that matter), to the GOP. As such, it seems to free some Republicans to wrap anything in the cloak of religion, even when discriminating against fellow Americans and denying more than half of the population the basic right to reproductive freedom. 

I found the following post I wrote when reviewing the topic of religion. It was attempt to convey the idea that our rights as defined by the Constitution and the Bill of Rights flew in the face of most of human history, the Magna Carta not withstanding, during which any rights that the average man possessed came from someone claiming divine rights as leader, or was just the strongest person in the clan. Women and minorities of course, had no rights as they were considered property.

It was only by way of secular laws (although perhaps loosely based on some religious tenets) enacted by a government, local, or national, that regular people could expect some type of fair treatment when wronged. And even now, there is a propensity for those with more resources to be granted a different version of justice than the rest of us.

In other words, the concept of god given rights was, at best a fairy tale, at worse, a concept used by some to remove the rights of others. 

https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2015/04/god-given-rights.html

Another interesting post I found, written just five years ago, involved a letter I received in the mail addressed to "my fellow Christian Patriot". I actually posted twice about this letter, but am only providing a link to the second one, as it goes beyond the actual letter and refers to my mother, whom I would never represent as a Christian Patriot, yet who embodies the spirit of Christ as well as anyone I know. I am fortunate to have her in my life as an example of how a follower of Christ actually behaves, even when we disagree on things, political, social, or philosophical.  

https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2019/04/more-on-christian-patriot.html

Finally, it pains me to admit that I shudder a bit when I hear people say God Bless America, whether they be politicians, pundits, family or friends. In the case of politicians, I chalk it up to a necessary phrase, something they all need to express to help their supporters feel warm and fuzzy.

Still, the concept itself, that God loves our country more than the others, or that we wish Her to do so, seems both arrogant and prideful. 

It is certainly not quite as bad as an athlete who looks to the skies after a touchdown or home run, as if God had a wager on their personal or team performance and needed to break Her recent spate of poor bets. Perhaps when an athlete says the devil made me do it, after an error or misplay in the field, I might at least smile, although I would not acknowledge that Satan also has placed some misguided bets.

Well, they are just hoping for God's blessing, you might say. OK, but wouldn't it be more effective for us to say God Bless the Earth, to wish for Her grace and benevolence on everyone, not just our particular artificially created tribe? 

I mean, if God is to have a side, shouldn't She be on the side of all her creatures, those that live in America, the Sudan, Greenland, Lichtenstein? I would think it relatively simple for the creator of all time and space, everything that has been and is to come, to be able to bless all the inhabitants of a tiny planet in one solar system of the millions in a galaxy which is itself one of millions. Let alone any parallel universes, should you be an adherent of that concept.

In the end, thinking God is on your side, personally or nationally, in itself is not harmful. I am sure my mother believes a variation of that notion. 

It is the belief in favoritism that is dangerous, because once one believes God favors them or their country over all the rest, all kinds of horrors ensue regardless of whether that favoritism is wrapped in the superiority of one's religion, race, gender or creed.

If history tells us anything, it is that all great cultures, all great nations, all great civilizations, all which believed in one way or another that they were fated to be so, or blessed more than the rest, all of them have faltered or failed. 

And that's just the ones we know about as our knowledge of the history of humanity barely scratches the surface when we consider that our family tree is millions of years old, homo sapiens at least 250,000 thousand years old, yet written history only reaches back about five thousand years. A blink of the eye, so to speak.

I will leave you with this. I do believe there is other life in the universe, has always been, always will. But I don't expect that we will ever contact such life, as I am inclined to think that the Creator allows life to prosper, in different parts of the universe, at different times, then provides said life forms with the knowledge to thrive, independently of each other, and without Her further blessing or intervention. 

Let's hope that judgement day is not based on the overall success of each of those bursts of life. If so, should our entire species be judged, throughout times past and times to come, as one, it would certainly make the concept of God's side seem pretty fruitless, if not completely inane.    

It's Time to Vote

Election day is upon us. Sometime in the next week, we will have a president elect, possibly the first woman president elect, as well as a new slate of Congressmen and women, a handful of new Senators, and a whole lot of new state legislators and other state administrators. 

In other words, a new government as elected by we, the people.

I say this because I believe it is worth emphasizing. While one might be distrustful of the two political parties which present us with the candidates from which to choose, it is still we, the people, who ultimately pick our leaders. 

And, as I have stated more than once, it is we, the people who are the most at fault if we are unhappy with our public servants and the laws and policies that they enact.

So far, early voting in the form of mail in and in person at polling stations, has already accounted for over 65 million votes, which is more than 40% of the total number of votes cast in the 2020 presidential election. This in itself should be considered a compliment to both Vice President Harris and Donald Trump, as it is clear that both have energized their respective bases to exercise their right to participate in our election process.

I have already posted four times this year under the label of Election 2024. Here are links to those posts.

https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2024/08/it-new-day.html

https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2024/06/did-rfk-jr-win-debate.html

https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2024/03/the-key-to-novembers-presidential.html

https://wurdsfromtheburbs.blogspot.com/2024/01/nikki-haley-for-president.html

I spent the time to read them before starting this entry. While my endorsement of Nikki Haley turned into disappointment when she resigned from the race, then endorsed Trump, I am still in agreement with my opinion that women will decide this race. 

I think that Haley's candidacy gave many conservative women permission to put country over party, and I believe that the horror stories coming to light about women dying in states where draconian abortion laws are scaring medical professionals to abandon their Hippocratic oaths, not to mention the rise in infant and maternal mortality in those same states since the Dobbs decision, will continue to drive women and some men to choose life over the misguided laws that pretend to be pro-life.

Still, Americans, historically vote with their pocket book, and the memory of high inflation, and slow progress in efforts to reduce prices, is a compelling reason to vote Republican. It doesn't matter that inflation was a world wide phenomenon, it is far easier to blame the incumbent's party than to delve into the facts that inflation would have occurred regardless of who won in 2020. 

For me, it was a no brainer to check the box next to Harris/Walz. I say was because I already voted, by mail, more than three weeks ago. 

But rather than detail the extremely long list of reasons not to vote for Trump, rather than specify that he 

is a convicted sex offender 

cheated on all three of his wives 

believes loyalty is a one way street as exemplified by his treatment of VP Pence who stood by him through thick and thin only to be called a coward when he didn't violate the Constitution of the United States by rejecting the duly certified electors of some of the states (including my own personal vote in Pennsylvania) 

adores the authoritarian and dictators of the globe

recently called America the garbage can of the world 

stole national secrets and classified documents when he left office then lied about having them for over 18 months 

was convicted of business fraud 

has promised to pardon those convicted January 6th criminals who beat up police officers, broke windows and doors to access our national capitol, then vandalized the offices within 

is an election denier who actively sought to stay in power after he lost the 2020 election and says every day that the election was stolen thereby casting doubt on the very process that defines a democracy

No, rather than enumerating those facts, and other outrageous actions, I prefer to itemize the reasons I chose Harris/Walz.

Women's Health

It is crystal clear to me that Trump is responsible for the horrific situation in America in which upwards of a third of women have lost the fundamental right of reproductive freedom. While I have no illusion that a Harris presidency, by itself, will equate to legislative action that will codify Roe V Wade, or some other such 20-24 week cutoff in which women (with their partners and health care providers) have sole discretion on whether to end a pregnancy, I also know that it can get a lot worse with Trump/Vance in the White House. Can you say Comstock Act?

It may take a while longer for women in GOP controlled states to demand from their legislators to raise them from second class status, but at least with Harris those women who choose to live in blue states will be safe.

Ukraine

It is also quite obvious that Trump will allow Putin to do whatever he wants in any negotiation to end the war in Ukraine. Whether it is because he is still pissed that Zelenskyy didn't accede to his attempt at extortion to trade weapons for dirt on Biden, or simply because of his bromance with Putin who knows how to play a vulnerable mark from his days in the KGB, we know Trump will sell out Ukraine without hesitation. 

Now, while I am hesitant to support American boots on the ground, I am fine with paying American companies to produce American weapons and giving or loaning them on an ongoing basis to send the message that international bullies must not be allowed to prosper, and I feel that Harris will continue in this manner.

Israel

Again, Trump will support Netanyahu in any act of war, criminal or otherwise. After all, what is the point of having superior weaponry, if you can't use it to vanquish your enemies. There have been countless humanitarian crises in the last few centuries. Sadly, I expect that history will count the ongoing slaughter in Gaza, the displacement of over 2 million people, and the eventual death of what could approach 10 percent of those people due to starvation, malnutrition, and disease as one of the worst.

Harris is not much better in this regard, although she at least calls for an increase in aid for the Palestinians while still defending the right for Israel to gain revenge for the horrors of October 7th. While her humanity is laudable while ineffective, it still reflects the possibility of a more humane outcome whereas with Trump, there will only be continued death and destruction.

Economy

I know that reading and understanding history is not a popular pastime in America, but I am still flabbergasted at the short memories being displayed by today's voters. The last two Republican Administrations, Bush 2 which ended in 2008, and Trump's which ended in 2020, were both marked by very difficult economic situations. 

In 2008, the stock markets had crashed, unemployment was on its way to 10%, mortgages were being foreclosed upon in record numbers, and the economy was in a recession, meaning GDP was negative.

In 2020, as the pandemic was still taking thousands of people per day, the stock market crashed, unemployment was on its way to 7%, people were stuck at home waiting for the vaccine to become available, and the economy was in recession. Not to mention there were supply chain disruptions across all types of consumer goods.

During Obama's first term, things did not improve very quickly but by the end of his first term, all of the metrics had improved enough that the electorate provided him with another term. By 2016, while GDP was positive, although sluggish, the stock markets had recovered, unemployment had stabilized, and inflation was extremely low. 

During Biden's first term, inflation struck, hard. While, as I stated above, most economists will agree that inflation was inevitable as the world recovered from the pandemic, it is also true that continuing to provide stimulus to American families so they could pay their bills, stay in their homes, purchase the goods and services and medicines that they needed, led to higher prices. 

What's ironic is that the very thing Obama was criticized for, a sluggish recovery, was avoided with those stimulus payments. (And remember, two of the stimulus payments occurred during the Trump term.) Now, one could argue that a slower economic recovery, lower inflation, more unemployment, is better than a much faster economic recovery (stock market continue to break new records, GDP is far higher than during Trump's term). 

And certainly, some kind of balance where recovery from major upheaval, whether it be economic as in 2008, or health related as in 2020, would be preferable. We can certainly debate why such a reduction of boom/bust might be attainable, and what factors keep the cycle going, but let's not forget the facts.

Republican administration ending in 2008 disaster.

Democratic administration ending with better stats (if not improving slower than desired) in 2016.

Republican administration ending in 2020 disaster.

Democratic administration ending with better stats (if not improving slower than desired) in 2024.

All that being said, neither candidate has a plan to address our growing national debt. Both keep flashing around tax reductions as a way to attract voters, but neither is telling us the truth, that we can't spend or grow our way out of debt. 

However, at least Harris wants to raise the taxes of the super rich while Trump, being (allegedly) super rich himself, prefers tax breaks for that group. 

And, of course, Trump thinks tariffs are the magic bullet even though, again, history will tell you that tariffs are only effectual when used sparingly, even surgically, because at the end of the day, cooperation in the form of fair trading practices, is the basis of capitalism, not bullying through the use of tariffs meant to punish our trading partners which almost always end up in higher prices for consumers.

LGBTQ+ and Trans communities

It amazes me that people my age, people who witnessed the demonization of gay people in the 1980's, who were told that the gay agenda was to make our children gay, or to seduce them in some insidious way, or that they couldn't be adoptive parents, or that God himself hated America because we tolerated such behavior, can't see how that movie is playing again, but with the trans child and adult being the new boogeyman.

Obviously, Donald Trump is nothing if not someone who knows how to illicit hatred for those that are different, but like those characters from "The Big Chill" who seemed amazed that people who were like them, who shared their experiences, could turn out so different, I am just as amazed at those who buy into the bullsh@@ that trans children, their parents, and trans adults are the reason why America is in decline, are who we need to weed out of our society, or who God hates.

Now, I can understand why some people might look askance at the prospect of providing tax payer money for trans surgeries in prisons, but be clear, that is an extreme example which has occurred a handful of times in history, has never been proposed for illegal immigrants, and is designed to make you think there are thousands of trans men in prisons seeking this extreme and invasive surgery, or are just interested in creeping around women's bathrooms, while the reality is that trans people are for more likely to be bullied, and that trans men committing crimes for free surgery, if it has occurred (because remember 5% of people are assholes) is extremely rare. Certainly less rare than the number of priests who have been accused of molesting young boys.

Harris will at least be open to treating those with a true gender dysphoria and those who are just confused, with empathy. That commercial being aired which claims Harris is for they/them while Trump is for you, is just despicable in its attempt to isolate those that perceive their sexual identity differently than most people and it turns my stomach to think it is effective.   

Immigration

Now there are those who might thing that I broach this topic towards the end of this post as most people believe this is a strength for Trump. And, if I were to be honest, the Biden/Harris administration did not handle immigration very effectively for most of their term. Even when considering that recovering from the pandemic was priority one, and that Biden thought honest negotiation with a very conservative senator would produce a bipartisan immigration bill, there should have been more focus on our broken immigration system before the executive action that was taken this past summer.

I know that the GOP controlled House which looked to Trump for direction was not about to agree to any Biden proposal, and I would like to think that a better plan to handle the influx of immigrants, legal or otherwise, could have been developed in conjunction with negotiating some legislation. Perhaps if given a choice, unilateral executive action or bipartisan legislation, the GOP could have been willing to the latter. As it was, the legislation was revealed too close to the election and too easy for Trump to scuttle.

Still, I believe Harris will learn from that mistake, will continue the current executive actions, perhaps even adding to them, and perhaps will get the GOP to the table, especially since she will have won, which means that Trump will have lost, again.

As for Trump's proposal to deport millions of undocumented people, I find it hard to believe that such a plan will be legally tenable, and/or that the majority of Americans will stand by while families are torn apart, American children with undocumented parents will suffer, and communities will lose the working power of this demographic, who toil in our factories, meat processing plants, gardens and restaurants.

I would like to think that such a plan where cruelty is the point, will be condemned far and wide in a country which claims to be a Christian nation.

Environment

I save this one for last because, while I truly believe that our democracy is in danger, not just because Trump has told us in no uncertain terms that he seeks to be like Putin and Orban and Kim Jong On, but because we take if for granted, do not put our due diligence in researching our political candidates, I also believe that climate change is real, and that humanity is accelerating this change.

Trump is a climate change denier, pure and simple. Sometimes I wonder if, knowing he is towards the end of his life, he spouts such nonsense as drill, baby, drill, or that climate change is a hoax because he knows he will be long gone before the worst is realized. It is something a transactional person would think, trading votes today for suffering that he will miss tomorrow.

Harris will at least continue to push for a greener energy transition, but more importantly, far more importantly, she will employ people in her administration who will advocate for our planet, people in departments such as the EPA while Trump will empower fossil fuel acolytes in those same seats of power. And he will certainly not engage in any cooperation among nations to combat climate change because, again, being transactional, global cooperation requires those nations with more, those nations who have been a bigger part of the problem, to give more so everyone thrives.

Finally, there was some controversy concerning the Washington Post not endorsing a presidential candidate this year. Tens of thousands of Post subscribers cancelled, many employees of the company signed a protest letter and some even resigned.

A few days ago, I read the editorial written by the owner of the Post, Jeff Bezos which defended his decision. 

As most of you know, I am not a fan of the super rich, regardless of political affiliation. And, I had read some of the responses to this decision, those that claimed Bezos may have been either afraid that Trump would win, afraid of any retribution that might come his way (his way defined as Amazon) should his paper endorse Harris, opinions which it was easy for me to consider as possible.

But I read his opinion, followed his logic, understood his points, especially his main one that since the media is losing the trust of the American electorate, he thought it best to not endorse a candidate so that his newspaper might appear less biased, just news focused.

Hogwash, was my reaction.

First of all, Trump followers will always disparage the Washington Post because Trump tells them to, so this noble stand will not change one of those minds.

Secondly, true independents, people who seek news, read it, then fact check it if it seems less than credible, will also be able to separate news from opinion, opinion being what is being offered when someone endorses a candidate.

I endorsed Harris in this post, tried to provide some facts to support my opinion, but I don't consider this news. If Bezos really thinks that people who read his paper cannot separate news from opinion, perhaps he should buy Fox News where that separation is blurred, on purpose. 

With all due respect Mr Bezos, doing nothing as defined by not endorsing a candidate, whether Trump or Harris, displays a marked sign of someone who lacks fortitude, raises the suspicion that such powerful and successful businessmen value their money over country, and frankly, seems to reflect a deficiency of patriotism. 

To me, doing nothing, at this time, does not say I am trying to improve the perception of fairness, it says I am too chicken to put my money where my mouth is.

------

I guess I would be remiss if I did not provide my predictions for the election.

First, my hope that regardless of the outcome, there will be a split government, meaning neither party will control both Houses of Congress and the White House. Whether that result will inspire those elected to work together to improve our country is debatable, but that would be the message they should receive.

Based on the fact that Trump did not exceed 47% of the popular vote in either 2016 or 2020, that his ceiling seems to be about 48%, I predict that Harris will win the presidency, that her popular vote victory will be enough to win the blue wall of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, plus Nevada which will gain her enough electoral votes even without Arizona and Georgia. 

I believe that Harris will gain as many or more independents and disillusioned Republican voters due to the anti-abortion laws debacle and the January 6th insurrection, as she will lose in independent and Democratic voters who are upset about inflation.

In the Senate, it seems clear that it will go to the GOP, assuming that West Virginia (a certainty), and Montana (most likely) flip. With Ohio, PA, Michigan and Wisconsin all close, the GOP majority could go as high as 52-48, although I expect the Dems will hold those four toss up seats, making it a 51-49 Republican majority.

In the House, which currently features a slim 8 seat majority, meaning the GOP can only afford to lose five seats, there seems a better than 50% chance that the Dems gain control as there are four seats that will most likely be flipped right off the bat. Looking at the 22 seats that are currently rated as toss up (by the Cook Report), with 12 being GOP and 10 Dem, I can see the Democrats picking up at least another three, perhaps as many as six which would equate to about 220-215, give or take. 

Thus a split government, which I would applaud.

Now, of course, numbers are only numbers, and we can be assured that the ex-president will

claim victory sometime Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning before all the votes are tabulated

say the words "rigged election" at least a dozen times within 24 hours of the last poll closings on the West Coast

accuse the Dems of election fraud and interference even more times than he uses the word rigged

call on Speaker of the House Johnson not to certify the election

go on an "election integrity" tour claiming all sorts of conspiracy theories about cheating, fake ballots, fraud, etc

Hopefully, and despite (or perhaps because of) any violence that ensues as a result of his election lies (again), it may finally come to pass that Donald J Trump's 15 minutes in the sun (although yes, I agree it has seemed like 15 decades), will begin to wane.

And, if it becomes apparent that the women of America were the force that voted him out, it will be all that more fitting that he was defeated by the very gender that he has abused, taken advantage of, and (because of the Dobbs decision) heaped anxiety, injury and even death upon.